Stephen Downes

This guide won't actually get you from knowing nothing to creating actual models, but it will point you to the right sort of reading you need to do to gt you all the way there. The 'models' it talks about aren't AI models (not exactly, at least) but rather flow diagrams, causal or statistical models. The models might be diagnostic, or they might be used to address design challenges. It's definitely a good overview of the topic, written in a non-technical and accessible manner.