As always with Bryan Alexander, this work is tightly focused on the U.S. context. And in the U.S., the eight predictions (from a paywalled source) boil down to three trends: "demographics, AI, K-12 learning loss." None of these was evenly distributed globally, not even after Covid (here's a full table of PISA results over the years) which to my mind says there are different drivers in different countries. Yes, the education system in the U.S. is under significant stress, but it's much more the result of domestic pressures, ranging from malice to disdirection to mismanagement, rather than a reflection of the global picture. Tuition at some institutions has topped $100K, while government funding for 'state' institutions has dropped to almost zero. That, more than anything, speaks volumes.
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