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Stephen Downes

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Two researchers used AI to author 288 finance papers in order to show how easy it will become to hypothesize after results are known (HARK) in this industry (and presumably any other statistically-driven discipline). "The different versions include creative names for the signals, contain custom introductions providing different theoretical justifications for the observed predictability patterns, and incorporate citations to existing (and, on occasion, imagined) literature supporting their respective claims." Here's the full set of papers on GitHub. Education researchers take note: "The future of financial research may depend less on our ability to generate hypotheses and more on our capacity to distinguish meaningful insights from statistically significant but theoretically hollow findings." 41 page PDF. Via Ethan Mollick.

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Stephen Downes Stephen Downes, Casselman, Canada
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Last Updated: Feb 18, 2025 8:54 p.m.

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