Content-type: text/html Downes.ca ~ Stephen's Web ~ Cognitive and Human Factors in Expert Decision Making: Six Fallacies and the Eight Sources of Bias

Stephen Downes

Knowledge, Learning, Community

It's easy to dismiss this paper because it appears at first glance to be of limited depth, but I think this would be a mistake. Itiel Dror argues that experts commit six overall fallacies that minimize the force of cognitive biases, ranging from the idea that bias stems from a few corrupt or unethical people to the idea that experts can overcome biases by mere willpower. Having laid out this groundwork he then describes eight major sources of bias, ranging from issues in the data and the context to issues involving human nature and human perception. "People's beliefs in various fallacies about bias prevent a proper understanding of bias, which in turn precludes taking steps to fight it. Understanding biases and acknowledging them enables discussion about their sources and to develop means to minimize their impact."

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Stephen Downes Stephen Downes, Casselman, Canada
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