Stephen Downes

Knowledge, Learning, Community

The topics James Ball writes about here, are relevant even if his predictions aren't. NFTs, for example, won't flame out in the way he suggests; they will meekly become obscure (in my view). Twitter won't get its act together, but social media (not just Twitter) will look for new revenue models to escape its toxic dependence on advertising. The gig companies (Uber, AirBnB, etc) will struggle to make money, because they have always struggled to make money, but with pandemic restrictions easing (vaccines make a huge difference) I expect a bit of a bounce-back.

Also, it's easy to predict things that have already happens (a common failing in these lists). It's a given that Jack Dorsey will focus on crypto because he has already started to do so (eg., changing the name of payment processing company Square to Block). The trick will be to make blockchain payments as easy as, um, tweeting. Similarly, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO) have already had their moment, which makes the prediction that they will moot. And yes, people are trying to make VR a thing again, or should I say, meta.

Finally, why wouldn't podcasts and mailing lists continue to surge? The bottom has fallen out of the news media industry, and both podcasts and newsletters favour the low-overhead personal journalism model that allows people to make a living. What's most predictable is that traditional media or companies like Spotify will try to own it all but until they can nail down market exclusivity, they can only try.

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Stephen Downes Stephen Downes, Casselman, Canada
stephen@downes.ca

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Last Updated: Mar 28, 2024 7:08 p.m.

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