NITLE Launches Online Prediction Markets for Teaching and Technology

Bryan Alexander, Liberal Education Today, Sept 01, 2008
Commentary by Stephen Downes

OK, I'll say it outright: prediction markets are a scam. The idea of a prediction market is that people 'buy shares' on the likelihood of certain outcomes. But they are easily manipulated - and because the objective is to make more 'money', there is incentive to manipulate them. The prediction market for the Democrat primaries spent an entire year predicting Hillary would win, while the prediction market for the Republicans had McCain dead last until the results came rolling in. Take a look.
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