For the record, I agree with Saul Carliner: instructor-led training is not on the verge of disappearing, and will still be around in 2019. But not for the reasons he cites. He suggests that informal learning will remain weak because (a) it is sparodic, and (b) it might be inaccurate. So, at best, we'll see a sift to online classrooms, not informal learning. Of course, like all things, it depends on how you count it. As I write at this very moment, informal learning has vastly outpaced formal learning. The evidence lies in billions of web pages being created and read every day. This is data not refuted by surveys of students or of five (count 'em, five!) bloggers. Bad data leads to bad predictions. Yes, instructor-led training will hang around, because people change slowly. That's all. More responses to Carliner from Harold Jarche and Tony Karrer.