A toolkit for predicting the future
The Economist, Medium,
Jun 02, 2017
It's a toolbox with only three tools, but they're good tools:
- History lessons - patterns from the history of technology, eg., new forms of crime, concerns about privacy, etc.
- Uneven distribution - in some places, the future is already here, so look for them (eg. in 2001, mobile handsets with cameras and colour screens were commonplace in Japan)
- the imagined futures of science fiction - not only predictive, but often inspirational
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