What will Higher Education look like in a 2050 -80% +2c 450ppm world?
A lot of futurists simply straightline or exponentiate existing trends. But the future always combines trends. This post looks at the future of learning as impacted by global warming. I think it's conservative. Joss Winn, learninglab, November 20, 2009. [Link] [Tags: none] [Previous][Next]Comments
Re: What will Higher Education look like in a 2050 -80% +2c 450ppm world?
This is topical for me, as my alma mater sits today substantially underwater <\a>
Think in the first world, we'll be fine. It'll be rough, yes, but we'll make it.
The big question is whether the big emerging world countries like India, China, Indonesia, can preserve their economic growth in the heat and deliver their populations to middle income, tertiary educated levels, or whether they collapse as failed states. That will make an order of magnitude difference in the size of the Tertiary sector in 2100. [Comment]
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Re: What will Higher Education look like in a 2050 -80% +2c 450ppm world?
Thanks for including my post in your OLDaily.
I agree with you that this initial post is conservative. I am having to restrain myself for fear of appearing too alarmist too soon. I hope to build up a picture through a series of referenced posts which will develop the idea of a 'resilient education' in the face of climate change, a changing economic model and a global energy crisis.
One question I have for you, Stephen, is what happens to networked learning if/when the networks fail due to a decline in the availability of fossil fuel energy? Renewables won't replace fossil fuels fast enough to maintain the relatively abundant networks we have now. Prices will rise as fossil fuels become more scarce making it unaffordable to keep the networks running on the scale we are becoming accustomed to and restrictions will be placed on the exploitation of fossil fuels for fuel as we are required to move to a more-or-less zero emissions world mid-century.
I'd really value your thoughts on this. Thank you.
See these related posts:
http://joss.blogs.lincoln.ac.uk/2009/10/08/thinking-the-unthinkable/
http://joss.blogs.lincoln.ac.uk/2009/11/16/bill-rees-the-vulnerability-and-resilience-of-cities/
http://joss.blogs.lincoln.ac.uk/2009/10/26/an-energy-crisis-reading-list/ [Comment]
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Re: What will Higher Education look like in a 2050 -80% +2c 450ppm world?
I'm actually not worried about continued electricity production, as there are numerous alternative sources - hydro, solar, wind - which can power networks. Of course, in regions that do not, or cannot, harvest these energy sources there will be shortages and they will begin to fall behind.
So my concern about climate with respect to climate change is mostly with respect to the change in society and economy more broadly as a result. In particular, mobility will be limited, climate will be more severe, and there will be widespread shortages of material goods, everything from food to metals to plastics.
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Re: What will Higher Education look like in a 2050 -80% +2c 450ppm world?
I agree with your second paragraph but am not as optimistic about the potential of renewables to replace fossil fuels in the period of time required. The UK is by no means self-sufficient in fossil fuel energy and using current and emerging renewable technologies, would not provide the energy we currently use, let alone require for economic growth (if that's what we continue to pursue). The energy return on investment of renewables is nothing like that from fossil fuels. David McKay, Cambridge Prof. of Physics and Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Dept. of Energy and Climate Change, has written a well-regarded (free) book on this. (Conclusions here: http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c27/page_212.shtml)
While there may just be existing and forthcoming technical solutions for the replacement of fossil fuel energy with renewables, the pressures from climate change to make the transition over the next forty years does not accord well with the ability for societies to accept this transition so rapidly. The most viable, though by no means the most appealing 'solution' might be draconian measures to force energy use per capita down. We had a form of it in the 1970s by introducing the three-day-week and again during World War Two. I should add that I don't wish for any of this, but I'm struggling to find a viable alternative when climate change, energy supply and demand, the pursuit of worldwide economic growth and population increases are looked at together.
With regards to your second paragraph, as you note, the networks rely on hardware that is very energy intensive to manufacture. Without an abundance of oil, silicone chips, plastics, storage devices, etc. will become increasingly expensive to produce, suggesting that access to and maintenance of networks will be increasingly restricted and vulnerable. [Comment]
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