How Big is the LMS Market?

Joshua Kim, Inside Higher Ed, Sept 25, 2017
Commentary by Stephen Downes

The answer is, of course, pretty big. But Joshua Kim points to some apparent discrepencies in the research.  He writes, "Instructure (Canvas) has about a 20 percent market share. In 2016, Instructure’s revenues were about $111 million." That gives us a total market of about %550 million. "What explains the discrepancy of this LMS market size estimate (between $555 and $832 million), and those from the market research companies and the press of between $3.2 and $5.2 billion?" Two things. First, Instructure's 20% market share is for the U.S. only. Instructure has a much lower share outside the U.S. And second, it's for higher education only. There's a much larger LMS market in corporate learning, which Instructure has barely touched. Is it possible that the U.S. higher education sector is only about 15% of the global market? Well, yeah. The numbers Kim points to as inconsistent are actually pretty consistent. Having said that, the real questuon mark isn't current size. It's growth.

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